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October 7, 2009
Realistic? In KPMG report, FCR's projections for condo sales prices: $1217/sf in 2015, $1369/sf in 2019
Atlantic Yards Report
More Atlantic Yards fantasy — the projected sales prices for project condos.
The Empire State Development Corporation (ESDC) has finally released the Atlantic Yards market study by KPMG, which stated, in the words of an ESDC lawyer, that it was "not unreasonable" for the 14 residential buildings (sans Site 5 and Building 1) to be absorbed in the officially announced decade.
The upshot: Forest City Ratner is counting on sales prices of $1217/sf in 2015 up to $1369/sf in 2019.
Is that realistic? Keep in mind that the Kahr report commissioned by the Council of Brooklyn Neighborhoods was skeptical of even the $850/sf (in 2006 dollars) assumed in a 2006 KPMG report. The Kahr report cast huge doubts on the official timetable.
"Modest inflation factor"?
Even though the average high sales price in the three surrounding neighborhoods is $970/sf, the new KPMG market study states that only a "modest inflation factor" would allow the expected prices to be reached:
Mindful that these prices are based on transactions that have occurred over the past 12 months during a severe recession, the value ranges for Fort Greene ($480 - $720), Park Slope ($500 - $950) and Prospect Heights ($470 - $1,225) lend support for the FCRC’s projected sale prices when a modest inflation factor is applied given these future sales prices.
Click thru for more — including the not-so-redacted sales projections.
NoLandGrab: We hope KPMG does a better job of protecting things like clients' social security numbers, but regardless, the real story here is the Atlantic Yards project's continued reliance on pie in the sky.
Posted by eric at October 7, 2009 4:46 PM